By now you’ve probably seen at least one (or several) posts on your favorite social media platform about crippling Thanksgiving snow. FEET of pure madness descending from the heavens snarling travel, crippling airports, closing highways. Absolute mayhem everywhere with no end in sight!
Ok, maybe a few of those posts weren’t quite that bad. Regardless, if you saw posts even remotely similar to that, do yourself a favor and unfollow them. Posting a single model image of a single model run 9-12 days into the future is what this writer likes to call “fantasyland.” It looks so good it’ll never happen. And never happen it will!
No, there’s no monster snowstorm barreling for the Ohio Valley around Thanksgiving. Yes, Thanksgiving snow for Ohio is possible – at least in some spots. Now, for an honest forecast….
COLDER WEATHER WITH CHANCES FOR SNOW ON THANKSGIVING IN OHIO
The overall pattern turns colder as a strong low pressure system tracks across the Great Lakes on Wednesday. A strong cold front will also move through the region, ushering in much colder air. Aloft, strong pressure drops will aid in ushering cold air to the surface and the cold front, followed by a few troughs and favorable winds, will allow for the development of lake effect snow from Thanksgiving Day through early Saturday (at least).
The overall setup will favor a potent burst of lake effect snow just in time to ring in the holidays and while that turkey is roasting in the oven, a few folks may be firing up the snowblower moving some of the white stuff – it just won’t be whipped cream onto pumpkin pie. We know this doesn’t exactly make those that do snow removal for a living very happy.
SNOWFALL ODDS
Here are the current odds for accumulating snow Thanksgiving Day through Saturday. It’s still a little too soon for amounts.
Models differ on overall timing and location of the snow. Global models have overall done better with lake effect snowfall but it’s better to wait until some of the shorter range models start coming into range, as they do a much better job picking up smaller scale details the global models simply cannot pick up on. Models also differ on projected totals as well, which is common at this range. There’s enough confidence to state that some places will be moving the snow with a shovel or a snow blower, but we’re not quite there yet on how much and where at.
TURNING THINGS UP
While turkey tetrazzini is cooking in the oven next week using up all of those leftovers, outside things are going to warm up next week as well. Ok, well it won’t be a scorcher, but warmer than average for early December. Cold air will drop across the Western US and warmer air will flow northward along the east coast. This will keep any ideas of “early December snow storms” in the Ohio Valley away since we’ll be above freezing. Instead, don’t pull out the shorts – we’ll see increased chances for rain.
Overall, temperatures won’t be scorching but near to slightly above normal. The Climate Prediction Center has much of the state experiencing near average temperatures during this time with Southern Ohio seeing slightly above average temperatures. Far Northwest Ohio may be slightly cooler than average.
SUMMARY
So, the “Armageddon snowstorm from Frozen” isn’t going to happen this week. If you were patiently waiting for it, I’m sorry. If you really hoped for it, I’m sorry too. I think most of us are probably relieved those clickbait “forecasts” (a few from legitimate broadcast meteorologists at that) aren’t going to see the light of day this week.
You won’t see this sort of “forecasting” here at Ohio News and Weather. We believe in honest and accurate weather forecasting. We don’t hype – ever. We don’t post the 10 day model run forecast for clicks and income either. Could we? Sure. We could. But that would mean throwing away our integrity and morals for a Klondike Bar. And if we really wanted one of those, that’s now what we would do for one.
We will continue to monitor the latest model trends and provide further weather updates on snow for Thanksgiving in Ohio. And we’ll also post a snowfall map once we have enough confidence in timing, location and the amount of snow we can expect. Keep up to date on social media and our Winter Weather page.
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