Enjoying tonight’s snow? The groundhog continues to allow Old Man Winter to win and bring more snow chances to the region and make us wait for Spring!
 
Models continue to have a few inconsistencies in terms of the track and intensity of the upcoming snow potential. With that said, we decided to release our First Call, but it is a bit different. We are showing you where the chances of accumulating snow exist across the Ohio Valley rather than show accumulation projections. We want to be accurate, and not give any hype.
snow9.PNG
 
TIMING: Models show that during the daytime and evening hours of Sunday will be the best chance to see accumulating snow. Nailing down specific start times is difficult this far out, but plan on a Snowy Sunday.
 
Breaking down the map, everyone stands at least a Lower Chance of accumulating snow Sunday. The Highest Chance of accumulating snow in our area exists across Southeast Indiana through much of southern Ohio and into the West Virginia Panhandle. There is a Moderate Chance of accumulating snow across East Central Indiana, far southern Ohio into West Virginia, and across parts of Northern Ohio.
 
In terms of amounts, right now we are feeling around 4 or 5 inches is an “At Most” Scenario, while 1 inch is an “At Least” Scenario. Trying to nail down who gets how much is a bit difficult still as intensity and track are in question. There remains some questions over a possible rain/snow line and where that would possibly set up at. Of course, that would alter totals somewhat. The storm is still out over the Pacific Ocean and thus has not been sampled just yet.
MAP
Above is a view of the system right now via Satellite. This system is still several hundred miles from moving onshore. That will take place on Friday, and then our weather balloons can get weather data to input into our computer models. Once that happens, we can gain some confidence in how much snow will fall and where. Models can struggle with the handling of a system when we have a lack of balloon data.
model.PNG
Using our 4 major models, here is a breakdown of what each says right now! DISCLAIMER: This is NOT a forecast…models run several times a day.

Above is a model breakdown of how much snow *COULD* fall. This is not our forecast, but you can see some wide ranges. The CMC and Euro Models are a bit more aggressive with more moisture. The GFS and NAM are showing less moisture and therefore lower totals. This is the reason we have elected to not issue our own map tonight. This is what can give meteorologists and forecasters a headache.

We promise to release total snowfall projections tomorrow evening as we continue to gain confidence. Also, we will work on nailing down any possible mix and work on timing when the snow arrives. Stay tuned for more updates!
Written: 8:40 PM 2/28/2019
Forecasters: Nick Dunn & Ken McNatt
Advertisements