You likely have had enough of Old Man Winter, but we are watching for two potentially active days coming up over the next several days that will remind us Old Man Winter is still in control. It looks like that Groundhog is not going to be right about that “Early Spring” prediction!

LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY: A weak and fast-moving system will pass south of the area overnight Thursday. Some of the precipitation, in the form of a wintry mix, will spread north of the Ohio River after midnight. Models are struggling to handle how far north the mix will travel. Current thinking is that drier air north of I-70 will limit how far north any wintry precipitation comes. Right now, the best chance of any mixed precipitation to cause any travel issues will be south of I-70. There is a lower chance of a mix closer to I-70, and some of that could fall as mainly snow. Accumulations of snow or ice look to be light, but it could be enough for some slick travel. We do not expect more than 1 inch of snow or a light glaze of ice. By Late Friday Morning, the precipitation has moved away and we will have a quiet rest of the day.

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Breaking Down Chances Of Snow/Wintry Mix

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY: A stronger, more organized system will pass south of the Ohio River late this weekend. It will have more energy and more available moisture. As it tracks across the south and into the Appalachians, we expect rain and snow to overspread the Ohio Valley to the Deep South Sunday Evening into Monday. As always, temperature and placement of the system will determine precipitation type and amount. As it stands right now, 3 of the 4 major models have a southern track favored for our local area, with the European Model being the outlier. The European Model would bring more of a classic “I-70 Divider” type of system to the area, with rain, snow, and a mixed bag of precipitation. The other 3 (Canadian, GFS, and FV3-GFS) would favor several inches of snow for the region.

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Storm Tracks: How Latest Model Data Evolves The Track

To show you one idea on how one model views this weekend panning out, here is a look at the GFS Model. A fairly expansive precipitation shield is likely from the Ohio Valley to the Deep South. Exactly how it pans out and evolves has yet to be determined.

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FV3-GFS: This is the new experimental GFS model showing snow as far north as the Great Lakes, and Rain perhaps as far south as the Gulf Coast! Track & Intensity will be important in determining who gets what!

Obviously, we are several days away from any potential late weekend into next week system moving into the area. This means specifics are too hard to nail down right now. That’s the general disclaimer we throw out there on systems that are more than three days out. Also, if you see anyone throwing out accumulations of snow, rain, or ice it is way too early for that. We encourage you to monitor the forecast as we nail down details. You could get nuisance amounts of precipitation, or perhaps a more significant amount.

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What We Do and Do Not Know — Breaking Down A Storm Several Days Away

We will continue to monitor how things evolve, and of course, bring you updates! Right now, we are not leaning towards one computer model over another. But, we will continue to show you how each one breaks down the event for our area as we get closer.

Written: 6:10 PM 2/27/2019
Forecasters: Nick Dunn & Ken McNatt

 

 

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