WEEKEND SNOW POTENTIAL UPDATE #2
By Ken McNatt
The models are beginning to show some level of consistency on location. Snowfall amounts and impacts continue to be, literally, up in the air.
Here is the latest model breakdown…
GFS: System clips our Southern counties. Light accumulations would be expected in Gallia and Lawrence (OH); Mason, Jackson, Roane, and Calhoun Counties…and, with the exception of Lawrence, this snowfall would be for the Southern parts of these counties.
GFS Northern Limit of Precipitation, Sunday 8:00 PM (Tropical Tidbits)
EURO: Precipitation makes it the US 50 corridor. Most amounts under an inch except for those the furthest South.
Can’t show the EURO model without paying them…sorry!
CANADIAN: Much more aggressive than yesterday. Has snow covering our entire coverage area, as well as most of Southern Ohio and Southeast Indiana. Light snowfall possible in Indiana and Southwest Ohio, moderate snowfall possible for Southeast Ohio, Moderate to heavy snowfall possible for West Virginia.
The Canadian model now suggests “go big or go home”. Yesterday it showed next to nothing. (2:00 PM, Sunday, Tropical Tidbits)
FV3-GFS (experimental GFS, expected to replace current GFS in 2019): Hasn’t backed off higher totals just yet but is much less aggressive than yesterday. Lighter amounts in Ohio, Light to Moderate amounts in West Virginia.
Northernmost extent of precipitation on the FV3-GFS, 8:00 AM Monday, Tropical Tidbits.
NAM: Not in range.
WRF: Not in range.
THINGS TO REMEMBER
– We are still at least four days out from any potential snowfall from this system, though most models are pointing toward Sunday as the main day for accumulation. The newer GFS suggests Monday morning for most accumulation. Thus, timing and amount uncertainty continues to exist.
– We are not in the 72 hour range where we would discuss actual totals and will not provide estimates at this time. We are getting more certain that, at the very least, our Southern counties will see some measure of snowfall from this system. Exact amounts remain to be seen.
– Though the Canadian is currently an outlier we cannot dismiss it as a possible solution. The FV3-GFS was just as aggressive yesterday.
– The time to prepare for ANY possibility is now. Go to https://www.ready.gov/winter-weather for more information about how to prepare for the worst that Winter could possibly throw our way.
Please check back in with us for further information.
– 1:36 PM, 12/5/18